cases

59,849

deaths

1283

cases

294.86

tests

1,348

Positivity

Number of new cases

Sarintany mampiseho ny tranga: Firy ny tranga voamarina isaky ny faritra eto Madagasikara?

Sarintany mampiseho ny tranga voamarina voa haingana: Firy ny tranga voamarina isaky ny faritra eto Madagasikara nandritry ny herinandro roa farany?

Isan’ny tranga: Fivoaran’ny isan’ny tranga vaovao voatily isaky ny faritra? & Isan’ny tranga isan’andro sy ny salan’isa mandritra izany (7 andro)

Number of deaths

Case Fatality Ratio

Through 2022-01-30, Madagascar has officially registered 59849 cases and 1283 deaths.

Using data on deaths that occurred and the number of cases, we can estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR). The CFR is defined as the proportion of confirmed COVID-19 deaths over the number of confirmed COVID19 cases.

The CFR can help us understand the severity of the disease in confirmed cases however it is not the same as the risk of death for an infected person and thus does not represent the probability of dying if an individual is infected by COVID-19.

In addition, the final clinical outcome of most of the reported cases is unknown. Therefore the tally of deaths over the confirmed cases might underestimate the true case fatality ratio.

case fatality ratio

2.14 %

Case Fatality Ratio

Number of tests

Positivity

R_t National Estimate

Expected cases

Unsure

Notes

• We simulated infection dates (n = 500) using the methods described here.

• Expected change in daily cases were classified as:

  • Increasing: < 5% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1.
  • Likely increasing: < 20% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1.
  • Unsure: 20 - 80% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1
  • Likely decreasing: > 80% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1
  • Decreasing: > 95% of of resulting R_t estimates were below 1

• For model estimates of R_t and cases, the darker shading shows the 50% credible intervals and the lighter shaded ribbon shows the 90% credible intervals.

• Forecasts of R_t at low/zero case counts have wide credible intervals and low confidence.

• There are a number of limitations and uncertainties in these methods, many of which are reviewed here.