59,849
1283
294.86
1,348
Through 2022-01-30, Madagascar has officially registered 59849 cases and 1283 deaths.
Using data on deaths that occurred and the number of cases, we can estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR). The CFR is defined as the proportion of confirmed COVID-19 deaths over the number of confirmed COVID19 cases.
The CFR can help us understand the severity of the disease in confirmed cases however it is not the same as the risk of death for an infected person and thus does not represent the probability of dying if an individual is infected by COVID-19.
In addition, the final clinical outcome of most of the reported cases is unknown. Therefore the tally of deaths over the confirmed cases might underestimate the true case fatality ratio.
2.14 %
Unsure
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We simulated infection dates (n = 500) using the methods described here.
Expected change in daily cases were classified as:
For model estimates of Rt and cases, the darker shading shows the 50% credible intervals and the lighter shaded ribbon shows the 90% credible intervals.
Forecasts of Rt at low/zero case counts have wide credible intervals and low confidence.
There are a number of limitations and uncertainties in these methods, many of which are reviewed here.